A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
